HomeNewsAnalysisMexico President Trumpets Lower Murder Rates But Problems Persist
ANALYSIS

Mexico President Trumpets Lower Murder Rates But Problems Persist

HOMICIDES / 19 AUG 2014 BY PATRICK CORCORAN EN

A pair of new statistical releases has Mexico celebrating its security improvements, though the depth of the changes remains uncertain.

Earlier this summer, Mexico's statistical agency, Inegi, released its final tally of murders in 2013, finding a figure of 22,732, compared to 26,037 in 2012. Then last week, President Enrique Peña Nieto told a class of graduating naval officers that the murder rate through mid-2014 was 27 percent below the first six months of 2012.

''Although there is more work to do, we are making progress on the commitment I took on before the Mexican people to reduce the violence and recover the tranquility for our population,” the president told the graduating class.

It's not clear what statistical agency the president was using to make his claim since he did not cite a source. Inegi is one of two official homicide counters and only releases its data once a year. The other, the National Public Security System, typically has a lower count than Inegi and releases monthly data.  

Still, the Inegi statistic represents a significant improvement in the murder rate since the end of the tenure of former president Felipe Calderon.

The nearly 23,000 murders last year, which equates to murder rate of 19 per 100,000 residents, dropped 13 percent from 2012 and 16 percent from 2011, the high-water mark of the Calderon era. The rate of 19 is also well below the average of some of Mexico's neighbors in Central and South America. 

The murder rate of 19 per 100,000 is likewise a significant drop from the worst figure of the Calderon era -- 24 per 100,000 -- and it seems poised to drop further. Mexico's National Public Security System registered 8,101 murders over the first six months of 2014, which puts Mexico on pace for a further 12 percent drop in murders this year compared to last year.

InSight Crime Analysis

All of this serves as evidence that the Peña Nieto's basic bet on security -- reducing both the attention paid to insecurity and the violence itself -- is paying dividends. In addition to the litany of statistics like those mentioned above, the international narrative on Mexico has changed dramatically. Stories of economic liberalization and reform are now as common as tales of beheadings. 

However, the rosy picture glosses over a number of lingering challenges. First, the declines in murders do not account for killings when the body is not found. The several hundred bodies have been discovered in clandestine graves in Tamaulipas and Durango in recent years demonstrates that hiding the evidence of a murder is a favored tactic of certain criminal groups, and is likely significantly more widespread than is appreciated.

Over the first year of Peña Nieto's presidency, the National Registry of Disappeared Persons counted 2,618 missing Mexicans, many of whom may have been murdered. The fact that gangs often have a natural incentive to hide their dead bodies -- the greater the public outcry, the more likely a robust federal intervention will force a given gang to alter its modes of operation -- adds further credence to this theory.

Furthermore, Peña Nieto's positive stats ignore the fact that extortion and kidnapping, two violent crimes whose recent upsurge has eroded Mexico's social stability, do not to appear to have dropped. On the contrary, both have continued to rise since Peña Nieto ascended to the presidency in December 2012. The persistently high levels of these crimes perhaps explain why perceptions of security have not improved despite the marked decline in the murder rate. 

Peña Nieto's Mexico also retains pockets of severe violence, which have resisted the overall positive trend. While there have been some high profile successes -- Juarez and Monterrey being two of the most prominent -- many areas in Mexico remain under the heel of criminal groups. Guerrero, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Mexico State are all on pace for more than 1,000 murders, with both Guerrero and Sinaloa on pace to roughly triple the national murder rate.

Furthermore, while many of the specific rivalries that have driven violence in recent years have subsided, large and aggressive criminal gangs with conflicting interests remains scattered around Mexico. The rapid disappearence of Sinaloa Cartel leaders like Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman also promises a potentially destabilizing reorganization of the nation's most powerful trafficking organization, an event that could cause a spike in violence that reverses recent gains.

Such facts open a substantial hole in the happy narrative emanating from Mexico's presidency.

share icon icon icon

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

What are your thoughts? Click here to send InSight Crime your comments.

We encourage readers to copy and distribute our work for non-commercial purposes, with attribution to InSight Crime in the byline and links to the original at both the top and bottom of the article. Check the Creative Commons website for more details of how to share our work, and please send us an email if you use an article.

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

Related Content

JALISCO CARTEL / 11 JUL 2022

Despite Mexico ranking as the second-most devout Catholic country on the planet, clerics have found no salvation from extortion, beatings…

ELITES AND CRIME / 3 NOV 2022

The trial of Genaro García Luna, Mexico's public security minister during the presidency of Felipe Calderón, is fast approaching.

EL SALVADOR / 15 FEB 2022

MS13 members seeking to escape the gang's strongholds in Central America, or disappear off the radar, often flee to Mexico.

About InSight Crime

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime Contributes Expertise Across the Board 

22 SEP 2023

This week InSight Crime investigators Sara García and María Fernanda Ramírez led a discussion of the challenges posed by Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” plan within urban contexts. The…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime Cited in New Colombia Drug Policy Plan

15 SEP 2023

InSight Crime’s work on emerging coca cultivation in Honduras, Guatemala, and Venezuela was cited in the Colombian government’s…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime Discusses Honduran Women's Prison Investigation

8 SEP 2023

Investigators Victoria Dittmar and María Fernanda Ramírez discussed InSight Crime’s recent investigation of a massacre in Honduras’ only women’s prison in a Twitter Spaces event on…

THE ORGANIZATION

Human Trafficking Investigation Published in Leading Mexican Newspaper

1 SEP 2023

Leading Mexican media outlet El Universal featured our most recent investigation, “The Geography of Human Trafficking on the US-Mexico Border,” on the front page of its August 30…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime's Coverage of Ecuador Leads International Debate

25 AUG 2023

This week, Jeremy McDermott, co-director of InSight Crime, was interviewed by La Sexta, a Spanish television channel, about the situation of extreme violence and insecurity in Ecuador…