The United States launched new strikes on vessels suspected of transporting drugs in late August—the first attacks after a two-month hiatus. The latest missile strikes suggest the Trump administration is sticking with a tactic that evidence suggests has so far failed to curb drug trafficking.

US President Trump has said that maritime drug trafficking to the United States dropped dramatically since the strikes began in September 2025, even claiming it had fallen 98% by January. But US Border Patrol (USBP) and Office of Field Operations (OFO) drug seizures tell a different story. 

Drug seizures can operate as a proxy, albeit a far-from-perfect one, for the amount of drugs passing through an area. Seizures of cocaine, the drug most likely to be aboard the targeted vessels, at or between ports of entry to the United States fell by less than 3% in the 11 months following the beginning of the strikes when compared with the same period the year prior. A supply shortage also typically pushes the prices of a drug up, but cocaine prices in the United States have also remained largely stable, further challenging the notion that supply has been reduced.

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There is evidence that strikes have disrupted specific routes forcing smugglers to adopt alternate routes or methods, but they have not substantially reduced drug trafficking.

Some traffickers initially abandoned coastal drug trafficking export points in Venezuela following the strikes, and trafficking to nearby islands such as Aruba, Curaçao, and Trinidad all but froze for a time, according to InSight Crime investigations. But seizures near Aruba in June and July show that traffickers are continuing to use these routes. Alternatives have also sprung up, with a reported increase in drug flights from Venezuela into Guyana after the strikes began in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela. 

Recent drug confiscations in or near Guyana’s neighbor Suriname suggest that routes departing these countries could be becoming more fixed. Drug traffickers are also using larger boats and sticking closer to coastlines to reduce the likelihood of potential attacks, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) analysts told the Washington Post. 

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The most recent strikes indicate that the controversial campaign is set to continue, regardless of its questionable impact.

Lethal strikes on August 23 and 25 were followed by a joint operation with Ecuador on August 28. US Marines and sailors sank what the US military described as a floating refueling station that the Ecuadorian crime group the Choneros used for vessels transporting drugs. Unlike the previously reported strikes at sea, this time US forces removed those aboard before destroying the vessel.

US authorities have failed to provide evidence of their assertion that the boats and people targeted in strikes, which have killed 227 people since September 2025, were trafficking drugs. The process used in planning the strikes remains relatively opaque, but US Senator Tim Kaine revealed in June that evidence of drugs aboard a vessel is not one of the three criteria used to determine which vessels to attack. The intelligence behind the strikes has been questioned, with a Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) report identifying a lack of rigor in identifying those aboard or their alleged affiliation to drug trafficking organizations. 

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The strikes are part of a wider regional anti-drug push from the United States. The US Coast Guard continues making large seizures, and the Treasury has aggressively sanctioned alleged drug traffickers. The State Department has designated 20 criminal groups in the region as Foreign Terrorist Organizations since last year. The latest missile strikes at sea came a few weeks after the latest meeting of the US-led military initiative, the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (A3C), also known as the Shield of the Americas alliance, an initiative pushed by the Trump government as part of calls for a more militarized anti-drug strategy across the region.