HomeNewsAnalysisIs the Government Manipulating Kidnap Statistics in Mexico?
ANALYSIS

Is the Government Manipulating Kidnap Statistics in Mexico?

INFOGRAPHICS / 5 FEB 2015 BY ELYSSA PACHICO EN

According to numbers kept by Mexico’s government, abductions dropped 17 percent last year, although the numbers kept by a kidnapping watchdog group say otherwise.  

Data released by the Mexican government show there were 1,394 kidnappings reported in 2014, a drop from 2013, which saw the highest number of reported abductions in a 17-year period.  

 The numbers also show that, similarly to 2013, kidnappings remain concentrated in central Mexico — including Morelos, Mexico state, and the Federal District — alongside several states along the Atlantic coast, from Tabasco to Tamaulipas (which had the highest number of kidnappings in Mexico last year, despite a federal security program launched there last year). And on the Pacific side, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Northern Baja California reported the most kidnappings in that region, as illustrated in the map below, which tracks the government’s kidnapping data in each state over a four-year period.

Since 2011, kidnappings have increased notably along Mexico’s Atlantic coast — Tamaulipas has seen kidnappings go up 109 percent since that year, alongside an increase of 140 percent in Veracruz. And apart from Tamaulipas, kidnappings have mostly gone down in Mexican border states along the US — most dramatically in Chihuahua, where the crime dropped by nearly 92 percent, according to the government’s numbers.

Aside from Tabasco, only a negligible amount of kidnapping cases are reported along Mexico’s border states with Guatemala — it seems likely that the actual number of cases are much higher, given the number of migrants who are vulnerable to kidnapping by criminal gangs, and therefore unlikely to report it. 

Another significant drop — about 57 percent, between 2013 and 2014 — was registered in Michoacan, which saw the formation of multiple civilian militia groups last year, as well as a federal security surge involving more than 12,000 police officers, soldiers, and marines

SEE ALSO: Mexico’s Security Dilemma: Michoacan’s Militias

All in all, 21 of Mexico’s 31 states saw kidnapping go down last year, even if by just a single case, according to the federal government. 

However, the numbers published by non-governmental organization Alto al Secuestro, which also tracks Mexico’s kidnappings, tells a very different story. According to Alto al Secuestro, kidnapping in fact increased by 30 percent between 2013 and 2014. The NGO’s director said that the government only tracks kidnap cases opened by state attorney general offices, and does not include those opened by the federal Attorney General’s Office, known as the PGR. When comparing the NGO’s kidnapping figures alongside the government’s from the past two years, it should be noted that Alto al Secuestro includes cases from December 2012 in its count, which also helps explain why its numbers are higher.

Keeping this in mind, there are still a select few cases in which the NGO’s figures are significantly different from those reported by the federal government. Notably, the discrepancy is most acute in the central Mexico states most heavily affected by kidnapping, including Mexico state, where the NGO registered 1,173 kidnappings, compared to the government’s count of 367. Alongside the Federal District and Morelos, this region is perhaps where the federal Attorney General’s Office has opened more investigations, which are reportedly included in Alto al Secuestro’s count but not in the government’s. 

SEE ALSO: Mexico News and Profiles

The Mexican government’s kidnap count will reportedly begin including investigations handled by the PGR starting in March. This means that the 2015 figures may well show a nationwide increase in kidnappings again, compared to previous years. 

Nevertheless, it is also worth pointing out that the so-called “cifra negra” — the number of kidnappings that go unreported — is likely huge in Mexico. The country’s national statistics agency has estimated that in 2013, more than 90 percent of crimes went unreported, and there may have been over 130,000 kidnappings that year — a number significantly higher than both the government’s registry and that of Alto al Secuestro’s. 

Compartir icon icon icon

What are your thoughts? Click here to send InSight Crime your comments.

We encourage readers to copy and distribute our work for non-commercial purposes, with attribution to InSight Crime in the byline and links to the original at both the top and bottom of the article. Check the Creative Commons website for more details of how to share our work, and please send us an email if you use an article.

Related Content

MEXICO / 26 MAR 2012

A year ago this week, the son of poet Javier Sicilia was murdered by a drug gang in Cuernavaca, sparking…

EUROPE CRIME / 10 AUG 2011

The rise of the Zetas as not just a Mexican menace but as a…

EL CHAYO / 6 FEB 2014

The reported arrest of a financial operator for "The Craziest One," the former leader of Mexico's Familia Michoacana, has fueled…

About InSight Crime

THE ORGANIZATION

We Have Updated Our Website

4 FEB 2021

Welcome to our new home page. We have revamped the site to create a better display and reader experience.

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime Events – Border Crime: The Northern Triangle and Tri-Border Area

ARGENTINA / 25 JAN 2021

Through several rounds of extensive field investigations, our researchers have analyzed and mapped out the main illicit economies and criminal groups present in 39 border departments spread across the six countries of study – the Northern Triangle trio of Guatemala, Honduras, and El…

BRIEF

InSight Crime’s ‘Memo Fantasma’ Investigation Wins Simón Bolívar National Journalism Prize

COLOMBIA / 20 NOV 2020

The staff at InSight Crime was awarded the prestigious Simón Bolívar national journalism prize in Colombia for its two-year investigation into the drug trafficker known as “Memo Fantasma,” which was…

ANALYSIS

InSight Crime – From Uncovering Organized Crime to Finding What Works

COLOMBIA / 12 NOV 2020

This project began 10 years ago as an effort to address a problem: the lack of daily coverage, investigative stories and analysis of organized crime in the Americas. …

ANALYSIS

InSight Crime – Ten Years of Investigating Organized Crime in the Americas

FEATURED / 2 NOV 2020

In early 2009, Steven Dudley was in Medellín, Colombia. His assignment: speak to a jailed paramilitary leader in the Itagui prison, just south of the city. Following his interview inside…