HomeNewsBriefAs ELN Peace Talks Start, a Rocky Path Ahead
BRIEF

As ELN Peace Talks Start, a Rocky Path Ahead

COLOMBIA / 7 FEB 2017 BY TRISTAN CLAVEL EN

As the public phase of peace talks between the government of Colombia and the country's second-largest guerrilla group begins, the rebels' ongoing kidnappings and fragmented structure promise a bumpy road for the negotiations.

The National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional - ELN) and the Colombian government planned to meet on February 7 in Quito, Ecuador, for the official start of negotiations meant to bring an end to the conflict between the parties, reported El Colombiano.

The talks, whose preliminary phase was launched in 2014, had failed to officially begin in October 2016 because the guerrilla group had not released a kidnapped former congressman, Odín Sánchez Montes de Oca.

Sánchez was finally let go on February 2, reported El País, opening the path for the delayed official start of the talks five days later.

The release of another ELN hostage held since January 24, a soldier named Fredy Moreno Mahecha, was confirmed by the International Committee of the Red Cross on February 6, according to El Tiempo.

For its part, the Colombian government freed four guerrillas in exchange, which the ELN welcomed as a positive sign in a press release. But the rebel group also criticized the continuing military operations against the group, saying that "the obstinate position of [President Juan Manuel] Santos' administration to discuss while continuing the hostilities will result in grave difficulties for the negotiation process."

InSight Crime Analysis

The official talks between the ELN and the government may have finallly started after numerous delays, but the rebel group's fragmented structure raises serious doubts as to the leadership's ability to reign in its troops' participation in criminal activities such as kidnapping, and to ensure that they would comply with a possible agreement.

Reports have indicated that the ELN is actually expanding its operations by recuperating the drug and illicit mining activities abandoned by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarios de Colombia - FARC), amid the latter's own demobilization process.

Moreover, extensive InSight Crime field research in the department of Nariño has uncovered evidence of at least three kidnappings by the ELN in the last four months that have not been officially reported. These included a former mayor of the Roberto Payán municipality and a senior business figure in El Charco with ransoms in excess of $100,000.

ELN - Roberto Payan

The flag of the ELN planted in the Roberto Payán municipality of Nariño. InSight Crime photo

These recent events could be a means for the rebel group to increase its leverage at the negotiation table. León Valencia, the director of the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation (Fundación Paz y Reconciliación), told El Universal that the ELN would likely continue the kidnappings until the government agreed to a bilateral ceasefire during negotiations.

SEE ALSO: ELN News and Profile

But one cannot ignore the lucrative aspects of the kidnappings and illicit trades, nor the fact that they endanger the talks by calling into question whether certain elements of the guerrilla group are actually willing to eventually demobilize. Further kidnappings could be particularly damaging as they could chip away at public support for the peace process.

Moreover, given the ELN's fragmented structure, its leader Nicolás Rodríguez Bautista, alias "Gabino," may not be able to rein in the rank and file and put a stop to kidnapping and other criminal activities. Similarly, Gabino's ability to enforce the implementation of a possible agreement within the rebel ranks is uncertain.

share icon icon icon

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

What are your thoughts? Click here to send InSight Crime your comments.

We encourage readers to copy and distribute our work for non-commercial purposes, with attribution to InSight Crime in the byline and links to the original at both the top and bottom of the article. Check the Creative Commons website for more details of how to share our work, and please send us an email if you use an article.

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

Related Content

COLOMBIA / 12 JUL 2021

The pandemic has done nothing to reduce clashes between criminal actors in Colombia, with a rise in violence in early…

COLOMBIA / 22 JUN 2022

The ELN have stated their will to engage in peace talks with the upcoming administration of Colombia's president-elect Gustavo Petro,…

AUC / 16 JUL 2021

One of Colombia's foremost drug traffickers and money launderers has been assassinated in Bogotá, leaving important unanswered questions about his…

About InSight Crime

THE ORGANIZATION

All Eyes on Ecuador

2 JUN 2023

Our coverage of organized crime in Ecuador continues to be a valuable resource for international and local news outlets. Internationally, Reuters cited our 2022 Homicide Round-Up,…

WORK WITH US

Open Position: Social Media and Engagement Strategist

27 MAY 2023

InSight Crime is looking for a Social Media and Engagement Strategist who will be focused on maintaining and improving InSight Crime’s reputation and interaction with its audiences through publishing activities…

THE ORGANIZATION

Venezuela Coverage Receives Great Reception

27 MAY 2023

Several of InSight Crime’s most recent articles about Venezuela have been well received by regional media. Our article on Venezuela’s colectivos expanding beyond their political role to control access to…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime's Chemical Precursor Report Continues

19 MAY 2023

For the second week in a row, our investigation into the flow of precursor chemicals for the manufacture of synthetic drugs in Mexico has been cited by multiple regional media…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime’s Chemical Precursor Report Widely Cited

THE ORGANIZATION / 12 MAY 2023

We are proud to see that our recently published investigation into the supply chain of chemical precursors feeding Mexico’s synthetic drug production has been warmly received.