HomeNewsAnalysisWhat a Trump Presidency Means for LatAm Organized Crime
ANALYSIS

What a Trump Presidency Means for LatAm Organized Crime

COLOMBIA / 10 NOV 2016 BY MIMI YAGOUB EN

In the wake of Donald Trump's surprising victory in the US presidential election, InSight Crime considers the impact his administration could have on security and organized crime in Latin America.

Trump will hold the top office alongside a Republican-dominated Congress, as the party maintained a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives.

Aside from his common refrain of building a wall along the US-Mexico border, Trump rarely touched on topics concerning Latin America during his campaign. This has created a great deal of uncertainty about his position on a host of issues related to the region, and his foreign policy more generally. 

Nonetheless, he has indicated an interest in pulling back from US engagements around the world. According to James Bosworth, a partner at Southern Pulse, this bodes well not only for Latin American organized crime, but also corrupt officials who could face less international pressure to create more transparent institutions. 

"The Trump admin is likely to pay less attention & dedicate fewer resources to LatAm," Bosworth told InSight Crime via Twitter. "Corruption & criminal groups will benefit."

Below, InSight Crime breaks down what a Trump presidency could mean for security-related issues in the region. 

Mexico and Central America

A pillar of Trump's immigration rhetoric has been his promise to build a wall on the border between the United States and Mexico. While the building of a wall would pose extreme logistical challenges, this kind of discourse suggests that Trump will bolster security measures at the border in an attempt to make the passage of illegal migrants, drugs and other contraband more difficult. Trump has claimed -- falsely -- that "drugs pour through our southern border at a record clip."

One foreseeable outcome of this would be more criminal violence in northern Mexico. The reduced number of crossing points that remain available to criminal groups would become much more profitable, and therefore more dangerous, security analyst Alejandro Hope told InSight Crime.

"The conflict for taking control of [criminal turf], these routes, could get worse," Hope explained. This could worsen the security situation in Mexican border cities such as Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana, which are already experiencing a rise in drug-related violence. 

SEE ALSOCoverage of US/Mexico Border

It's also possible that Trump's inflammatory remarks about Mexicans could damage security cooperation between the two nations. Hope said he believes the president-elect could get rid of the Merida Initiative, a US assistance package aimed at helping its southern neighbor combat organized crime and corruption. This would not represent a significant loss in terms of resources, Hope said, but could complicate extradition agreements and recent advances in joint counter-narcotics and migrant control strategies.

Another factor that could have an impact on violence levels in Mexico is Trump's pledge to deport "criminal illegal immigrants."

"These international gangs of thugs and drug cartels will be -- I promise you, from the first day in office…we're going to get rid of these people, day one," Trump said last August.

Current President Barack Obama has deported a record number of undocumented migrants, but Trump may choose to enact legal tools to expedite the process, which would be easier to do with a Republican-dominated congress, according to the Los Angeles Times

Hope suggested that Trump could bypass current deportation norms by having a large number of Mexican migrants with criminal records dumped on the other side of the border, rather than returned to their place of origin. This risks creating a large pool of jobless deportees for criminal groups to recruit from, Hope added.

As for Central America, a great number of immigrants living under precarious legal conditions in the United States face the risk of being deported. Analysts fear that a flood of migrants returning to the Northern Triangle (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) could exacerbate the ongoing security crisis in the region. Many of the migrants came to the US fleeing rampant gang violence, and their safety would be in jeopardy if they were forced to return home. 

Meanwhile, Central American migrants heading north will likely be even more reliant on human smugglers, or "coyotes," to help them navigate the treacherous journey. The International Crisis Group has already documented how a crackdown on migrants at the US border and in Mexico has inadvertently strengthened these smuggling networks.

South America

Colombia and the United States have enjoyed a close diplomatic relationship for years, and the South American nation is by far the largest recipient of US foreign aid in the hemisphere. The Obama administration has been supportive of Colombia's efforts to reach a peace agreement with rebel group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia - FARC), and he recently requested that congress earmark $450 million for Colombia's post-conflict development plans.

President Juan Manuel Santos appeared to remind Trump of that special relationship in a congratulatory tweet. 

"We celebrate the democratic spirit of the US on #ElectionNight," Santos tweeted. "With Donald Trump we will continue to deepen our bilateral relations."

But Trump may not be as enthusiastic as previous US presidents to provide Colombia with material and/or diplomatic aid.

"For Colombia, an 'America First' approach would mean less assistance -- probably including less military assistance --and far less diplomatic support, if any, to the Juan Manuel Santos government’s efforts to secure peace with guerrillas," wrote Adam Isacson, a senior associate at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).

This could have major implications on the future of organized crime in Colombia. The United States has poured in billions of dollars over the last 15 years helping Colombia combat the transnational drug trade, as well as the FARC, which control up to 70 percent of all the country's coca crops. A significant decrease in US aid would hurt the government's chances of preventing a recycling of violence and criminal economies in a post-conflict phase. 

SEE ALSO:  Coverage of Security Policy

The Venezuelan political and economic crisis is one that the Obama administration has approached with relative tact. The US government has indeed been tough on occasion, sanctioning and indicting high-ranking government officials. But it has refrained from more strong-armed tactics -- such as tougher economic sanctions and a ban on certain bilateral trade -- that would have risked politically antagonizing Venezuela to an even greater extent.

With Trump in office this softer stance may crumble. The president-elect has described Venezuela as a country "run into the ground by socialists," stating that he would "stand with the oppressed people of Venezuela yearning to be free." 

The US government is currently investigating several senior Venezuelan officials for their potential links to drug trafficking. It's unclear whether a potential shift in the US stance towards Venezuela would change how those investigations are handled. 

share icon icon icon

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

What are your thoughts? Click here to send InSight Crime your comments.

We encourage readers to copy and distribute our work for non-commercial purposes, with attribution to InSight Crime in the byline and links to the original at both the top and bottom of the article. Check the Creative Commons website for more details of how to share our work, and please send us an email if you use an article.

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

Related Content

COLOMBIA / 28 JUL 2021

Mexico's largest criminal groups are outsourcing the retrieval of cocaine shipments to smaller groups posing as fishing cooperatives, providing another…

CHAPITOS / 9 AUG 2022

Little clarity has followed the brazen assassination of a local police chief in northern Mexico.

FENTANYL / 22 NOV 2022

Authorities in the United States have sanctioned a Mexican criminal group for trafficking illicit fentanyl into the country.

About InSight Crime

THE ORGANIZATION

All Eyes on Ecuador

2 JUN 2023

Our coverage of organized crime in Ecuador continues to be a valuable resource for international and local news outlets. Internationally, Reuters cited our 2022 Homicide Round-Up,…

WORK WITH US

Open Position: Social Media and Engagement Strategist

27 MAY 2023

InSight Crime is looking for a Social Media and Engagement Strategist who will be focused on maintaining and improving InSight Crime’s reputation and interaction with its audiences through publishing activities…

THE ORGANIZATION

Venezuela Coverage Receives Great Reception

27 MAY 2023

Several of InSight Crime’s most recent articles about Venezuela have been well received by regional media. Our article on Venezuela’s colectivos expanding beyond their political role to control access to…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime's Chemical Precursor Report Continues

19 MAY 2023

For the second week in a row, our investigation into the flow of precursor chemicals for the manufacture of synthetic drugs in Mexico has been cited by multiple regional media…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime’s Chemical Precursor Report Widely Cited

THE ORGANIZATION / 12 MAY 2023

We are proud to see that our recently published investigation into the supply chain of chemical precursors feeding Mexico’s synthetic drug production has been warmly received.