HomeNewsBriefIs Colombia’s Ceasefire With the ELN at Risk of Crumbling in Chocó?
BRIEF

Is Colombia’s Ceasefire With the ELN at Risk of Crumbling in Chocó?

COLOMBIA / 8 NOV 2017 BY TRISTAN CLAVEL* EN

Warnings that Colombia's bilateral ceasefire with the ELN guerrilla group could crumble because of violence in a criminal hotbed could be exaggerated, but the peace negotiations between Colombia's government and the main active rebel group certainly remains fragile.

The National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional - ELN) believes the bilateral ceasefire with the government in September is in "grave danger," according to a November 7 press release from the rebel group.

Pablo Beltrán, the head of the ELN's peace negotiation team, said that the ceasefire had been observed since it came into force at the beginning of October, given that no armed confrontations had occurred between guerrilla fighters and government security forces.

However, Beltrán said that the ceasefire's first month saw government forces exploit the temporary truce to move into areas under ELN control. In addition, Beltrán argued that the conflict had not eased, in light of ongoing political pressures and killings of social activists.

While the ELN blames the government for not protecting social leaders, the guerrilla group is accused of the recent murder of the indigenous governor of Chocó, a department on Colombia's Pacific Coast. The ELN says some of its elements overstepped orders to investigate the governor for possible collusion with military intelligence, according to a press release from October 27.

A monitoring report released on November 7 by the Conflict Analysis Resource Center (Centro de Recursos para el Análisis de Conflictos - CERAC), also noted several violent actions by the ELN that led to the displacement of hundreds of civilians in Chocó.

According to experts cited by El Colombiano, in addition to ongoing violence, signs have appeared of possible dissidence between the ELN's Western War Front operating in Chocó and the guerrilla group's centralized leadership structure negotiating peace with the government. This could increase the risk that the ceasefire might crumble in the department.

InSight Crime Analysis

Given how unstable the department has traditionally been, and the fragmented nature of the ELN, there is some risk that the bilateral ceasefire might be broken in Chocó. But InSight Crime field research suggests that underworld agreements might help keep the tenuous ceasefire in place.

Although it is not certain, the ELN and criminal groups such as the Urabeños may have agreed to divide control of Chocó, which is strategically located along Colombia's Pacific Coast and the northern border with Panama. This hypothesis, which could explain the recent decrease in confrontations between these armed groups compared to earlier this year, diminish the likelihood that the ELN would break the ceasefire in the department. Such a move would draw attention and action from government forces, disturbing all the criminal groups' lucrative illegal mining and coca growing operations in the area.

SEE ALSO: Coverage of ELN Peace

That is not to say that the ceasefire or the ELN peace process as a whole are safe. As InSight Crime previously explained, the ELN's fragmented nature means that it is difficult for the group's leadership to guarantee rank-and-file adherence to any measures agreed upon with the government. And the outcome of the peace accords with the Revolutionary Army Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia – FARC) -- currently in a crucial phase -- will undoubtedly also shape the future of ELN's peace talks.

*This article was written with assistance from Angela Liliana Olaya Castro.

share icon icon icon

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

What are your thoughts? Click here to send InSight Crime your comments.

We encourage readers to copy and distribute our work for non-commercial purposes, with attribution to InSight Crime in the byline and links to the original at both the top and bottom of the article. Check the Creative Commons website for more details of how to share our work, and please send us an email if you use an article.

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

Related Content

BRAZIL / 6 JAN 2022

The dismantling of a gang trafficking marijuana and cocaine from Colombia to Brazil has revealed greater connections between organized crime…

COLOMBIA / 23 APR 2021

The Libertadores del Vichada are a splinter group of the Popular Revolutionary Anti-Terrorist Army of Colombia.

ARGENTINA / 8 FEB 2023

InSight Crime's 2022 Homicide Round-Up covers more countries than ever before, with a major expansion into nations of the Caribbean.

About InSight Crime

THE ORGANIZATION

Venezuela Coverage Continues to be Highlighted

3 MAR 2023

This week, InSight Crime co-director Jeremy McDermott was the featured guest on the Americas Quarterly podcast, where he provided an expert overview of the changing dynamics…

THE ORGANIZATION

Venezuela's Organized Crime Top 10 Attracts Attention

24 FEB 2023

Last week, InSight Crime published its ranking of Venezuela’s ten organized crime groups to accompany the launch of the Venezuela Organized Crime Observatory. Read…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime on El País Podcast

10 FEB 2023

This week, InSight Crime co-founder, Jeremy McDermott, was among experts featured in an El País podcast on the progress of Colombia’s nascent peace process.

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime Interviewed by Associated Press

3 FEB 2023

This week, InSight Crime’s Co-director Jeremy McDermott was interviewed by the Associated Press on developments in Haiti as the country continues its prolonged collapse. McDermott’s words were republished around the world,…

THE ORGANIZATION

Escaping Barrio 18

27 JAN 2023

Last week, InSight Crime published an investigation charting the story of Desafío, a 28-year-old Barrio 18 gang member who is desperate to escape gang life. But there’s one problem: he’s…