Ecuador’s numerous gangs boast significant territorial presence and a diversity of funding streams that will pose a formidable challenge to the country’s weak institutions in what will likely be a drawn-out conflict between organized crime and the state.

Approximately a week after Ecuador declared war on organized crime amid gang-led chaos, prison riots, and attacks on police and civilians, the country’s security forces said they had re-taken prisons, and violence appeared to be down from its peak. But experts expect the lull to be temporary.

“It’s true that we’ve seen a decrease in violence, but that is normal in the first week of war,” Daniel Pontón, a professor of security at Ecuador’s National Institute of Higher Studies (Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales – IAEN Ecuador), told InSight Crime. “In time, it will come back with even more force.” 

Below InSight Crime maps out the challenges facing President Daniel Noboa. 

A Complicated Criminal Landscape

Noboa faces fragmenting criminal structures with diverse income streams, and the gangs have made it clear that they maintain a presence beyond traditional criminal hotspots. 

In his declaration of war, Noboa classified 22 groups as “terrorist organizations” — a much higher number than government officials have considered a serious threat in the past. Security experts have questioned whether the inclusion of such a large number reflects the reality on the ground. 

“Some of these, I have never heard of in my life, and I follow this subject closely,” Lorena Yael Piedra, former intelligence official and president of the Ecuadorian Association of International Studies, told InSight Crime. 

But the growing number of groups also reflects how quickly the criminal landscape in Ecuador has fragmented, with new groups splintering off from previously cohesive structures. 

These groups are increasingly fighting each other for control of criminal profits, economies, and key territories. While they seem to have united against the government during the escalation of violence over the last week, these alliances may be temporary. 

“You have long-term strategic alliances, and you have tactical short-term alliances with very specific objectives,” Renato Rivera-Rhon, coordinator of Ecuador’s Organized Crime Observatory (Observatorio Ecuatoriano de Crimen Organizado – OECO), told InSight Crime. “The current coordination falls within the category of tactical alliances, with the common objective of demonstrating the power that these criminal organizations have, mainly to the government, but also to citizens.”

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The underlying competition between gangs makes fighting a war against them difficult, since any military operation that significantly weakens one gang can give another — even a previously small and insignificant one — a strategic advantage. 

The gangs also have an expansive geographical reach that could stretch government resources thin. Over the past week, bombings and other acts of intimidation have taken place in areas traditionally considered secure, including the capital, Quito, the major transport hub of Riobamba, and Cuenca, Ecuador’s third-largest city. 

A Well-Resourced Enemy

Complicating the government’s response further is that these groups — which initially thrived off drug trafficking profits — have since diversified their income streams, making it difficult to cut off money funding the gangs’ side of the war. 

The combination of transnational cocaine trafficking and retail drug sales within Ecuador is still the most important earner for the country’s organized crime groups, but other criminal economies are growing, according to an Ecuadorian government report obtained last year by InSight Crime. 

Human smuggling and human trafficking, as well as a slew of environmental crimes, all saw a rise between 2021 and 2022, according to the report. Extortion is also on the rise. 

The government, on the other hand, is strapped for resources. The country’s Finance and Economic Ministry has estimated that maintaining the armed forces’ operations will require over  $1 billion which Ecuador does not have. 

“The country’s short-term fiscal situation is unsustainable,” the ministry wrote in an official statement released on January 15. 

Noboa has asked Ecuador’s congress to raise taxes, but the opposition-controlled legislature signaled that it will reject the proposal in its current form. 

International actors, including the United States, the European Union, Colombia, and even Venezuela have offered their support. But any aid may be too little, too late.

“It’s a situation with a lot of uncertainty,” Pontón said. 

A Short-Term Approach to a Long-Term Conflict

In starting a war with Ecuador’s gangs, Noboa has given little indication of his exit strategy, and there is growing evidence that Ecuador will become bogged down in a long-term conflict. 

In the short term, the government had few alternatives to a militarized response. But experts cautioned against excessive reliance on security forces to solve long-term crime problems.

“It should not become a habit — it should be a short-term intervention with specific goals,” a Ministry of Defense official speaking in a personal capacity told InSight Crime.  

Yet, Noboa has not specified what comes next if the military response succeeds in restoring order. 

“He’s making things up as he goes along,” Carla Alvarez, a professor at the Institute of Advanced National Studies (Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales) specializing in the development of public security policy, organized crime, and the prison system, told InSight Crime. 

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Additionally, corruption plagues some of the main institutions charged with containing crime over the long term, including the police, the prisons, and the judicial system. 

“Corruption within the police is an open secret,” the Defense Ministry official told InSight Crime. “And that worries me because it could mean that the armed forces have to intervene for an extended amount of time if the police cannot do their job.” 

Part of the problem is a shortage of resources — failure to invest in institutions and corruption go hand-in-hand, and underfunded institutions enable criminal groups, experts told InSight Crime. 

In explaining why gangs have been able to convert prisons into recruiting grounds, for instance, Yael Piedra said, “when there is not enough money for the basics — when water, toilet paper, and soap become luxury items — organized crime steps in.”

*Marian Balceiro contributed to research for this article.

** The map “Gang Presence in Ecuador 2024” was updated on January 24