HomeNewsBriefColombia Election Results Cast Doubt Over Future of FARC Peace Deal
BRIEF

Colombia Election Results Cast Doubt Over Future of FARC Peace Deal

COLOMBIA / 12 MAR 2018 BY MIKE LASUSA* EN

Recent congressional elections in Colombia brought victory to a slate of candidates opposed to a 2016 peace deal between the government and the now-demobilized FARC rebel group, creating serious uncertainty about the future of the accords ahead of a presidential election later this year.

The March 11 vote garnered 19 seats in the 100-seat senate for the Democratic Center (Centro Democrático) party, led by vocal peace deal critic and former President Álvaro Uribe, making the party the dominant force in the upper house of congress.

The Radical Change Party (Partido Cambio Radical), which is also opposed to the peace process, won the second-most seats in the senate, with 16.

The Social Unity Party (Partido Social de Unidad) -- the political vehicle of President Juan Manuel Santos, who has championed the peace deal during his two terms in office -- saw its previous position as the most powerful force in the senate severely diminished. The party won only 14 seats in the upper house, reducing it to the fifth-most represented.

SEE ALSO: Colombia News and Profiles

Santos' party faired slightly better in elections for the lower house of congress, winning 25 seats out of a total of 163. And the Liberal Party (Partido Liberal), which also supports the peace deal, won the most seats, with 35.

However, the Democratic Center and Radical Change parties won 32 and 30 seats, respectively, giving the top anti-peace parties a slight edge over the pro-peace bloc.

Perhaps the most emblematic example of Colombian voters' rejection of pro-peace deal candidates was the disastrous showing by the Common Alternative Revolutionary Force (Fuerza Alternativa Revolucionaria del Común – FARC), the political party formed by the now-demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarios de Colombia – FARC).

The FARC political party had widely been expected to garner little electoral support, but the party secured just over 85,000 total votes -- much worse than expected. Regardless of the poor results, the FARC will have representation in the next congress, as the peace agreement guaranteed the former guerrillas five seats in each house.

Primary voting also took place to select candidates for the first round of a presidential election scheduled for May. Democratic Center candidate Iván Duque won the primary for his coalition. Gustavo Petro, the fomer mayor of Bogotá who supports the FARC peace deal, won the primary for his coalition.

The FARC candidate for the presidential election, former top guerrilla leader Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri, alias “Timochenko," dropped out of the race last week due to health problems.

InSight Crime Analysis

Opposition to the FARC peace deal seemed to be a winning electoral strategy in the recent vote, suggesting that the presidential election could also bring victory to a candidate opposed to the peace process.

The combination of a legislature and executive branch dominated by opponents of the FARC peace deal would not bode well for the future of the accords, and could deepen the existing problem of dissidence among former FARC fighters. (A law was approved last year that was intended to protect the peace deal from being politically undermined, but its vagueness raises questions about how effective it could be.)

SEE ALSO: Coverage of Ex-FARC Mafia

Even under the current government, which supports the peace process, the implementation of the accords has run into a number of roadblocks. Opponents of the deal managed to defeat an October 2016 referendum on a previous version of the peace deal, and have used various avenues to try to impede the new accord's progress.

Once the new anti-peace slate of candidates takes office, these efforts can be expected to intensify. If an opponent of the peace deal wins the presidency, it's possible the entire process could be seriously slowed down, if not completely scrapped.

This is likely generating uncertainty among the ranks of demobilized FARC guerrillas, many of whom have already defected from the peace process in order to pursue various criminal activities. Some dissidents are being recruited into the ranks of other criminal groups, such as the Urabeños. Others are forming new criminal structures, known as the ex-FARC mafia.

The ex-FARC mafia are already poised to become the most powerful criminal force in Colombia. If their ranks swell further with deserters concerned about the future of the peace process, that development will only be accelerated.

*This article was written with assistance from Parker Asmann and Sergio Saffon.

share icon icon icon

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

What are your thoughts? Click here to send InSight Crime your comments.

We encourage readers to copy and distribute our work for non-commercial purposes, with attribution to InSight Crime in the byline and links to the original at both the top and bottom of the article. Check the Creative Commons website for more details of how to share our work, and please send us an email if you use an article.

Was this content helpful?

We want to sustain Latin America’s largest organized crime database, but in order to do so, we need resources.

DONATE

Related Content

COLOMBIA / 29 OCT 2021

series of attacks on oil pipelines in Colombia's northeastern department of Santander, for which the ELN has claimed responsibility, could…

BRAZIL / 24 MAR 2022

The 2021 ranking of the world's most violent cities predictably features a heavy presence by Latin American and Caribbean population…

COLOMBIA / 27 APR 2022

Before his arrest and extradition, Otoniel, both a former guerrilla fighter and ex-paramilitary, has an unparalleled reputation in the underworld.

About InSight Crime

THE ORGANIZATION

Venezuela Coverage Receives Great Reception

27 MAY 2023

Several of InSight Crime’s most recent articles about Venezuela have been well received by regional media. Our article on Venezuela’s colectivos expanding beyond their political role to control access to…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime's Chemical Precursor Report Continues

19 MAY 2023

For the second week in a row, our investigation into the flow of precursor chemicals for the manufacture of synthetic drugs in Mexico has been cited by multiple regional media…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime’s Chemical Precursor Report Widely Cited

THE ORGANIZATION / 12 MAY 2023

We are proud to see that our recently published investigation into the supply chain of chemical precursors feeding Mexico’s synthetic drug production has been warmly received.

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime’s Paraguay Election Coverage Draws Attention 

5 MAY 2023

InSight Crime looked at the various anti-organized crime policies proposed by the candidates in Paraguay’s presidential election, which was won on April 30 by Santiago Peña. Our pre-election coverage was cited…

THE ORGANIZATION

InSight Crime Cited in OAS, CARICOM Reports

28 APR 2023

This week, InSight Crime’s work was cited nine times in a new report by the Organization of American States (OAS) titled “The Impact of Organized Crime on Women,…