DataInSights: Is Chile Losing Control of its Prisons?

Chilean authorities appear to be losing control of the country’s prisons, as growing overcrowding tempts criminals into challenging security measures behind bars.

After years of steady decline, Chile’s prison population has increased for 25 consecutive months, according to figures from the Chilean Gendarmerie (Gendarmería de Chile), the country’s prison authority.

“We now have 54,000 prisoners. It’s an explosive increase in a very short space of time,” said Chile’s justice minister, Luis Cordero Vega, in an interview late last year. 

Since then, the numbers have continued to rise. In February 2024, there were 54,766 people in prison – 131% above official capacity. That puts Chile above neighboring Argentina (118.5%), but still below Brazil (173.9%) and Peru (230.4%), according to data from World Prison Brief.

How Did Chile’s Prisons Get So Full?

The growing use of pretrial detention and a spike in some crimes, such as homicides and kidnappings, has fuelled prison overcrowding.

In 2021, Chile’s prison population was in steady decline and sat below the penitentiary system’s official capacity of 41,762 places. The prison population sank to a low of 39,641 in December that year. 

Yet by May 2022, the number of incarcerated people had surpassed prison capacity, and it remains on the rise.

An increasing reliance on pretrial detention is one factor behind the spike. Between December 2021 and February 2024, the number of unsentenced detainees rose sharply from 14,202 to 19,812. That figure had increased only marginally between 2019 and 2022, rising from 13,802 to 14,506.

Part of this increase could stem from panic. The incidence of homicide and kidnappings in Chile has increased since 2019, though other major crimes have remained lower than just a few years ago. Chileans are more concerned about crime than citizens of any other country in the world, according to a recent survey by IPSOS, an international polling and market research firm. Faced with growing concerns about crime and insecurity, it appears judges are more frequently resorting to pretrial detention. 

An increase in certain crimes also helps explain Chile’s burgeoning prison population. More serious crimes, such as kidnapping and homicide, tend to have lengthy prison sentences. And the number of kidnappings in Chile peaked in 2022, according to data from the Attorney General’s Office. 

The number of homicide cases investigated by police has increased every year since 2017, with the exception of 2021. The number of homicide victims has been on the rise since 2018, though it decreased slightly between 2022 and 2023. Despite this, Chile maintains one of the lowest homicide rates in the region.

A Growing Threat

With Chile’s incarcerated population on the rise, the country risks mimicking other South American nations that have lost control of prisons. 

Powerful transnational criminal groups such as Brazil’s First Capital Command (Primeiro Comando da Capital – PCC), Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, Paraguay’s Clan Rotela, and Ecuador’s notorious prison gangs spawned in overcrowded prisons that eluded state control. Insecurity behind bars allowed these groups to recruit new members, manage criminal businesses, and exert control over certain jails. 

Fearing the rise of similar prison gangs, the Chilean government is seeking to expel foreigners convicted for narcotics offenses. Yet such a measure would likely prove futile.

Data shows that Chile’s prisons would remain overcrowded even if all incarcerated foreigners were immediately released. Chileans represent 86% of the total prison population, though the number of imprisoned foreigners has grown in recent years. The penitentiary system held 45,978 Chileans as of December 2023 – 110% above prison capacity.

Maintaining control of prisons will not be easy. In March, authorities at a prison in Santiago began installing cell phone blockers in an attempt to disrupt communication between jailed crime bosses and the outside world. The gang members responded by threatening authorities or saying they would take visitors and lawyers hostage. There were also rumors that criminal groups would use snipers to destroy the antennas.