A fall in traffic through the Panama Canal resulting from a lack of rainfall could affect the distribution chain of trafficking networks that use this maritime corridor to move drug shipments.
Since mid-July, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has been gradually limiting the daily passage of vessels crossing through the strait that connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The measure is primarily a response to a lack of rainfall, which has reduced water levels in the artificial lakes that supply the canal’s channels.
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“Due to the El Niño phenomenon, the average accumulated rainfall in the watershed for 2023 is 25.6% lower than the average rainfall of the last 73 years,” the ACP said in a press release on October 3.
At optimal operation levels, the canal has a daily throughput capacity of 38 vessels. In July, the ACP lowered the figure to 32 ships, then further reduced it to 31 in November. If the drought continues, the Panama Canal may only be able to accommodate 18 vessels per day by February 2024, according to a report issued by the ACP’s Vice Presidency for Operations.
These traffic jams in the Panama Canal are not only affecting international trade. Criminal organizations that use containers to move drugs also depend, in part, on the continuous flow of vessels passing through the Central American isthmus.
Regular drug seizures and media reports highlight Panama’s role as one of Latin America’s main drug trafficking hubs, above all for shipments destined for Europe.
In 2022, local authorities seized 138 tons of drugs, of which nearly 109 tons were cocaine. Most of the drugs were found inside containers, according to media reports and information from local security forces.
InSight Crime Analysis
When operations in the Panama Canal are reduced, everyone loses — including criminal groups. If this situation continues, drug traffickers may rethink routes and delivery methods for their merchandise.
The shipping delays and reduction in container vessels traveling from the Pacific Coast to Europe reduce both the options for contamination and the reliability of deliveries for traffickers.
In addition, the reduced flows could spell increased risk of seizures. Fewer than 2% of the containers loaded around the globe are subjected to detailed inspections with scanners at ports, allowing drug trafficking organizations to use various tactics to contaminate container ships and camouflage large illicit shipments bound for other countries.
If the volume of containers loaded at Panama falls, then the authorities would have the capacity to inspect a higher percentage of the total flow, reducing the odds of success for traffickers.
Organizations specializing in transnational cocaine trafficking, such as the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia – AGC), have used this route, corrupting local officials to transport drug shipments between the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. The shipping delays and reduction of container vessels could lead these and other organizations to seek alternative options while they wait for the canal to return to normal operation.
The Panama Canal’s issues may also have a knock-on effect throughout South America’s Pacific Coast. Traffickers operating in many of the most important points for trafficking to Europe, including Buenaventura in Colombia, Guayaquil in Ecuador, and Callao in Peru, also rely on ships passing through the canal and so could find their operations affected.
Regardless of whether the drought affects delivery schedules, transnational organized crime groups will adapt — like they did during the COVID-19 pandemic — finding new and creative ways to move their goods.